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Happy Halloween. I know, I know — it feels way too early to talk about the holidays. But the stores already have the inflatable snowmen out, and the numbers say your wallet is about to get very busy.
Deloitte's 2026 Holiday Retail Survey landed a couple of weeks ago, and one line jumped out: for the first time ever, Gen Z and millennials are expected to account for 50% of all holiday spending. Gen Z alone jumped from 10% of the holiday spend last year to 16% this year. The average household plans to spend $1,654, up 4% from 2025.
That's the good news (people feel a little better about their finances than they did a year ago). The less-good news is the timing. The Fed raised rates in September for the first time in three years, and the average credit card APR on accounts that actually carry a balance was already sitting around 22% before that hike. So if this is the year you go big on gifts, it's also the most expensive year in a while to put them on a card and figure it out later.
Let's make sure you get the generous holiday without the 2027 hangover.
Eight weeks of planning beats eight months of minimum payments.
What "I'll just put it on the card" actually costs
Last holiday season, about a third of Americans took on holiday debt, averaging roughly $1,223, according to LendingTree. Gen Z and millennials were the most likely to do it, at 44% each. Plenty of people were still paying it off by spring.
Here's what this year's average budget of $1,654 looks like on a card at 22% APR, depending on how fast you pay it back:
Payoff plan | Monthly payment | Interest you pay |
|---|---|---|
Paid in full in January | $1,654 once | $0 |
3 months | ~$572 | ~$61 |
6 months | ~$294 | ~$108 |
12 months | ~$155 | ~$205 |
Minimum payments only | Starts ~$47 | ~$1,550 over 7+ years |
Read that last row again. Paying only the minimum on a normal holiday budget can mean paying for those gifts almost twice, and still making payments when the sweater you bought is long gone. (Estimates assume a 22% APR and a typical minimum of 1% of the balance plus interest, $35 floor. Your card's terms will vary.)
The fix isn't "spend nothing." It's moving the money before you spend it instead of after.
The 8-week holiday plan
From today to Christmas is about eight weeks. That's eight paychecks-ish worth of runway if you're paid weekly, four if you're paid every other week. Plenty of time if you start this weekend.
Week 1 (this weekend): Pick your real number. Not the Deloitte average, your number. Start from what you can pay off by January statement time without touching rent or your emergency fund, then work backward. If that's $600, great. $600 spent on purpose beats $1,600 spent on vibes.
Week 1: Make the list before the deals make it for you. Write down every person, a rough dollar amount for each, and add the stuff people forget: wrapping, shipping, the white elephant at work, travel, the Friendsgiving bottle of wine. Deloitte found 49% of Gen Z shoppers plan to buy a gift for themselves this year. No judgment — just put "me" on the list with a number next to it.
Weeks 1–8: Open a separate "holiday" bucket. Divide your number by the paychecks between now and late December and auto-transfer that amount on payday. At $1,654 over eight weeks, that's about $207 a week. At $600 it's $75. Keeping it in a separate high-yield savings account (most online banks let you create a sub-account in about 30 seconds) means you can see exactly what's left and you earn a little interest while you wait.
Weeks 4–5: Shop Black Friday and Cyber Monday from the list only. Black Friday is November 27 this year. Deals are real, but "it was 40% off" is how a $600 budget becomes $900. If it's not on the list, it's not a deal, it's a new expense.
Weeks 1–8: Use your credit card as a tool, not a loan. Putting gifts on a rewards card is totally fine — great, even — if the money is already sitting in your holiday bucket. Swipe, earn the points or cash back, then pay it off from the bucket right away. You get the rewards and the purchase protection without a cent of interest.
Watch out for the two holiday traps
Buy Now, Pay Later at checkout. "4 interest-free payments of $37.50" feels painless when you click it in November. Stack five or six of those across different apps and you've got a pile of small bills hitting your checking account all through January and February, with late fees if one bounces. We broke down exactly why BNPL is quietly becoming your riskiest bill — worth a read before the shopping season starts.
Store credit cards at the register. "Save 20% today if you open a card!" Those cards often carry some of the highest APRs out there, and a new account can ding your credit score right before you might need it. The 20% isn't worth it unless you'd pay it off immediately and actually shop there regularly.
The Bonus Joe move: let a bank pay for the gifts
Here's the part only we'll tell you. Banks are still paying real money to new customers. A single checking account bonus of $300–$600 for setting up direct deposit can cover a big chunk of a holiday budget — basically free money for moving your paycheck around for a couple of months.
If you start one in early November, the timing often works out so the bonus posts in December or January, right when you'd want it. It's the same strategy we laid out in Bank Sign-Up Bonuses: The Best Side Gig Ever? — and every week we send the offers that are actually worth your time, with the fine print already read for you.
Already behind from last year?
If you're still carrying a balance from last December, don't add a new layer on top. Scale this year's number down, pay the existing balance first, and check out The No-Shame Guide to Getting Out of Credit Card Debt in Your 20s. Thoughtful beats expensive every time, and the people who love you would much rather get a smaller gift than watch you stress about money in February.
The bottom line
Your generation is officially the engine of the holidays now. That's a good sign — it means more of you feel financially steady enough to be generous. Just make sure the generosity is pre-funded. Pick your number this weekend, automate the transfers, shop the list, and pay the card off in full. Do that and January is just January, not a bill.
Enjoy the candy tonight. See you next week.
— Joe
Want the next holiday budget paid for by a bank?
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Bonus Joe is for informational purposes only and isn't financial advice. Survey data from Deloitte's 2026 Holiday Retail Survey and LendingTree; APR figures from the Federal Reserve's G.19 consumer credit release. Interest examples are estimates.
